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There are 3 Kinds of Lies: Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics  
Mark Twain
 
Over the past 6 months, the public has been inundated with sensationalist information in the media that has contributed to our current housing slowdown. Just like in the run-up in housing prices through the 2000s, the media has been a large contributor to a market psychology that is decoupled from market fundamentals. The difference being that the story is now negative.
 
Below are the 3 most commonly MISUSED STATISTICS in the media:
 

1) Housing Starts Drop 70%!
http://www.vancouversun.com/Business/story.html?id=1369898

 
This shouldn't really matter to buyers or sellers out there. Sure, this is related to the Real Estate market, but really, we're already overbuilt and it only makes sense for developers to stop when prices are no longer escalating.
 
Remember, these are CONSTRUCTION figures. Not sales or pricing figures. Unless you're a construction worker or materials supplier, this type of information is largely irrelevant to your real estate decision-making process.
 
 
This kind of information is important for buyers and sellers to know and also helpful for realtors to use. Gone are the days when a realtor could put up a sign and sell it $20,000 over list price in 12 hours. Back then, product was king and realtors spent most of their time trying to convince sellers to list with them. Now, with more product available and time-on-market figures increasing, the market is more balanced.
 
That said, a drop in sales has no bearing on price. Remember, these are UNIT SALE figures, not price figures. As an example, in December, the number of home sales dropped off in Kelowna; however, the average home sale price increased.
 
3) Average House Prices Expected to Drop 11% in 2009!
http://www.economicnews.ca/cepnews/wire/article/23902
 
This is the most damaging type of media reports that come out. Yes, it is technically true that Average Canadian Home Prices in 2009 will likely show an 11% drop from the Average Price in 2008; however, it does not take into account the fact that the market already turned in the middle of 2008, with the average price falling drastically since then. Also, the number of units sold in a given period has a huge effect on how averages are calculated.
 
A simple example:
2008 Jan - June > 100 Units Sell at $200,000 Average
2008 July - Dec > 50 Units Sell at $170,000 Average
What is the Average for 2008? $190,000
 
Of course, at the beginning of the year in January 2009, prices are ALREADY at the December 2008 figure of $170,000, or 11% BELOW the 2008 Average of $190,000. In this example, the slowdown began in the middle of 2008.
 
So even though the average price in 2009 is expected to be 11% below the average price in 2008, the January price already reflects this difference and a further drop in prices is not expected. Using these predictive models, we can see how average prices over the year can really skew the figures.
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Property Sales Strengthen in Current Market Cycle

A news release from the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver
 
VANCOUVER, B.C. - April 2, 2009.
The Metro Vancouver housing market experienced a movement away from volatility and toward stability to start the spring season.

 

Home sales in March 2009 returned to levels witnessed at the beginning of the decade, with 2,265 sales recorded across Metro Vancouver for the month, a 53 per cent increase over February but a 24.4 per cent decrease over March 2008, when 2,997 sales were recorded.

 

Since 1999, March sales have increased 31 per cent, on average, over the month of February. March 2009 marks the second consecutive month that sales have outperformed the ten-year average for this

month-over-month comparison.

 
"There’s more confidence in the housing market today than we were seeing late last year. Sales activity is rising to more typical levels given the season, and the number of homes being listed for sale is
levelling off," said Scott Russell, president of the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV).
 
New residential listings on the MLS® declined 22 per cent in March 2009 to 4,385 compared to

March 2008. This is the fifth month in a row that new listings have decreased year-over-year and the third consecutive month where those declines exceeded 20 per cent. Despite these trends, total active listings at the end of March 2009 had still reached 14,579, a 19 per cent increase compared to the end of March 2008.

 
"REALTORS® are seeing an increasing level of interest from first-time buyers who are attracted to

low interest rates, good supply of housing, greater affordability, and a considerably lower overall cost of servicing a mortgage compared to recent years," Russell said.

 

Sales of detached properties in March 2009 declined 19.6 per cent to 897 from the 1,116 units sold during the same period in 2008. The benchmark price, as calculated by the MLSLink Housing Price Index®, for detached properties declined 15.1 per cent from March 2008 to $649,342.

 
Sales of apartment properties declined 28.8 per cent last month to 976, compared to the 1,370 sales in March 2008. The benchmark price of an apartment property declined 13.5 per cent from March 2008 to $337,099.
 
Attached property sales in March 2009 decreased 23.3 per cent to 392, compared with the 511 sales during the same month in 2008. The benchmark price of an attached unit declined 11.2 per cent between March 2008 and 2009 to $420,563.
 
To see the news release in its entirety, including graphs and charts, go to http://www.rebgv.org/sites/default/files/REBGV%20Stats%20Package_April%202009.pdf
 
The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver is an association representing more than 9,400 REALTORS®. The Real Estate Board provides a variety of membership services, including the Multiple Listing Service®. For more information on real estate, statistics and buying or selling a home contact a local REALTOR® or visit www.rebgv.org.
 
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According to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV), residential housing sales in Greater Vancouver rose 94 per cent in February compared to the month before, with 1,480 sales registered in February compared to 762 sales in January, which was the slowest month for housing sales in 25 years. Over the past 10 years, February sales have typically surpassed January by an average increase of 53 per cent.

 

At the same time, new MLS® listings for residential properties continued to decrease for the fourth month in a row. New listings decreased 25.6 per cent in February compared to the previous year; 20 per cent in January; 8.6 per cent in December; and 10 per cent in November.

 

“There are terrific opportunities out there right now, but with property listings continuing to decrease, those opportunities may be available only for a brief window of time,” said Dave Watt, president of the REBGV.
 
REBGV reports that year-over-year property sales in Greater Vancouver declined 44.7 per cent in February 2009 from the 2,676 sales recorded in February 2008. Year-over-year, those are the lowest sales figures for February since the mid-1980s.
 
“REALTORS® are reporting more activity compared to recent months as people begin to see whether their position in the housing market has strengthened as a result of falling interest rates and improved affordability,” Watt says.It took, on average, 67 days to sell a home in Greater Vancouver in February, seven days less than last month, but behind the seller’s market of last February when the average stood at 33 days.
 
Sales of detached properties in February 2009 declined 41 per cent to 587 from the 995 units sold during the same period in 2008. The benchmark price, as calculated by the MLSLink Housing Price Index®, for detached properties declined 14.2 per cent from February 2008 to $653,452.
 
Sales of apartment properties declined 45.6 per cent last month to 650, compared to the 1,197 sales in February 2008. The benchmark price of an apartment property declined 13.9 per cent from February 2008 to $333,143.
 
Attached property sales in February 2009 decreased 49.8 per cent to 243, compared with the 484 sales during the same month in 2008. The benchmark price of an attached unit declined 9.7 per cent between Februarys 2008 and 2009 to $426,268.
 
New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties declined 25.6 per cent to 3,916 in February 2009 compared to February 2008, when 5,260 new units were listed.
 
REBGV News Release March 3, 2009
 
 
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Royal LePage Foresees
National Home Prices Declining Three Percent This Year
 

January 6, 2009 - THE CANADIAN PRESS

 
TORONTO - The average price of a house in Canada is likely to decline by three per cent this year, according to Royal LePage Real Estate Services (TSX:BRE.UN). The number of residential resale transactions is forecast to decline 3.5 per cent nationally, though the country's largest realty operator expects that there will still be local warm spots.
 
The forecast issued today follows a "significant reset" in 2008 - which Royal LePage predicted a year ago would see a 3.5 per cent average increase across the country.

 

In the event, preliminary numbers show a 1.1 per cent decline for 2008. Royal LePage says this came as "emotional reaction to recent economic and political instability did much to dampen consumer confidence during the latter part of 2008, causing a marked slowdown in house sales activity."

However, it predicts that "a more rational understanding of the issues" along with government corrective measures will cause activity to pick up in the latter half of 2009.

 
Overall, Royal LePage sees "only modest price and unit sales corrections." Nationally, the average house price is forecast to dip to $295,000, off from $304,000 in 2008, which in turn was down from $307,265 in the peak year of 2007.
 
"While Canada's housing market is anticipated to continue to move through a period of adjustment over the next six months, we should expect modestly lower home prices, not a U.S.-style collapse, which was brought on by a structural failure of the entire American credit system," stated Royal LePage CEO Phil Soper. "Most consumers are not aware that nationally, Canadian housing market activity peaked in 2007 and has been adjusting lower since. We are well into this inevitable cyclical correction."
 
In spite of the cooling trend on a national level, price and activity gains are still anticipated in some provinces, the Royal LePage report added. In mid-sized cities where prices remain below the national average, such as Regina and Winnipeg, prices are expected to increase moderately. Meanwhile, the steepest decline is forecast for Canada's most expensive city, Vancouver - "a natural cyclical reaction to an extended period of high price appreciation."
Read

Improved Housing Affordability
to Greater Vancouver in 2008

 
VANCOUVER, B.C. – January 5, 2009 –
The record-breaking real estate market cycle in Greater Vancouver, longer than normal at seven consecutive years, ended in 2008 amidst global economic challenges. The change brought relief from rising prices that saw benchmark prices escalate from $357,770 for a single family detached home in December 2001 to $648,421 by December 2008.

 

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that sales of detached, attached and apartment properties decreased 35.3 per cent in 2008 to 24,626 sales compared to 38,050 sales in 2007. Property listings for the year increased 13.9 per cent to 62,561 compared to 2007 when 54,945 new properties were listed.

“Trends in the latter half of 2008 showed a consistent month-over-month decrease in residential housing prices, a departure from the rising home prices and record-breaking sales that were experienced in Greater Vancouver for much of this decade,” said REBGV president, Dave Watt. “It’s also important to note that our December statistics show a third consecutive month of a decrease in active

property listings in Greater Vancouver. That means supply is coming down,” Watt said. “Last month was also the first time in 27 years that Greater Vancouver homes sales for December were higher than November.”

 

Residential benchmark prices, as calculated by the MLSLink Housing Price Index®, declined 10.9 per cent between Decembers 2007 and 2008. Since May 2008, the overall residential benchmark price has declined 14.8 per cent in Greater Vancouver to $484,211 from $568,411.

 
“For buyers, lower prices haven’t been a concern as much as the perception that prices are falling. It’s difficult to identify the ‘bottom’ of the market. The reality is that people tend to buy when prices are going up, not when they’re going down,” Watt said.
 
In December 2008, sales of detached, attached and apartment properties totalled 924, a decrease of 51.3 per cent compared to the 1,897 sales in December 2007. New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties declined 8.6 per cent to 1,550 in December 2008 compared to December 2007 when 1,695 new units were listed. Total listings in December declined 17.2 per cent to 15,193 from the 18,348 total active listings in Greater Vancouver in November 2008. Sales of detached properties in December 2008 declined 48.7 per cent to 348 from the 679 units sold during the same period in 2007.
 
The benchmark price for detached properties declined 11.2 per cent from $730,399 in December 2007 to $648,421 in December 2008. Since May 2008, the benchmark price for a detached property in Greater Vancouver has declined 15.9 per cent. Sales of apartment properties declined 53.7 per cent last month to 417 compared to 901 sales in December 2007.
 
The benchmark price of an apartment property declined 11.7 per cent from $377,579 in December 2007 to $333,275 in December 2008. Since May 2008, the benchmark price for an apartment property in Greater Vancouver has declined 14.5 per cent. Attached property sales in December 2008 decreased 49.8 per cent to 159, compared with the 317 sales in December 2007. The benchmark price of an attached unit declined 7.4 per cent from $456,941 in December 2007 to $423,338 in December 2008.
 
Since May 2008, the benchmark price for an attached property in Greater Vancouver has declined 11.6 per cent.
 
The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver is an association representing more than 9,500 REALTORS®. The Real Estate Board provides a variety of membership services, including the Multiple Listing Service®. For more information on real estate, statistics, and buying or selling a home, contact a local REALTOR® or visit www.rebgv.org.
 
To read the REBGV latest news release in its entirety, including the latest statistics, click here!
Read

Finally we are seeing the crack in the wall that has prevented the longer term rates to come down. The US Government is now investing directly in mortgage backed financing which will free up rates on mortgages. The problem has been that the actions taken thus far were not filtering down to the consumer. Similar actions taken by our government will see 5 and 10 year rates coming down. December 9th the Bank of Canada will meet and lower rates, expect a .25% or .50% drop. Keep floating. 
 
Term
Best
Bank Posted
1 year
4.35%
6.35%
3 year
5.15%
7.05%
5 year
5.55%
7.20%
10 year
6.45%
8.00%
25 year
6.75%
n/a
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
                 Bank Prime Rate 4.00%
 
Courtesy of
Laura Stein - The Mortgage Centre
Telephone: 604-657-6535 ext 22
2

www.mortgagecents.ca
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Bank Prime Rate 4.00% 
 
Term
Best
Bank Posted
1 year
4.49%
6.35%
3 year
5.25%
7.05%
5 year
5.69%
7.20%
10 year
6.10%
8.00%
25 year
6.75%
n/a
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
No real changes in interest rates this week. The Bank of Canada will meet again on December 9th and the expectation is for a decrease in the rate. Inflation concerns are cooling all over the world and central banks are committed to lowering rates to keep things moving.
 
The Canadian Real Estate values are projected to drop by about 5% in the next year creating more opportunities for buyers and investors. Speculation is that this will create a healthy market as prices come back into the realm of affordable. If you are in a variable mortgage…..keep floating!  
 
Courtesy of
Laura Stein - The Mortgage Centre
Telephone: 604-657-6535 ext 22
2

www.mortgagecents.ca

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Read

Residential Housing Price Decline

Creates Buying Opportunities

 
Housing price reductions across Greater Vancouver over the last six months have eliminated price gains witnessed in the first quarter of 2008.

 

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential benchmark prices, as calculated by the MLSLink Housing Price Index®, declined 8.8 per cent between May and October 2008, resulting in a 3.9 per cent year-to-date price reduction for detached, attached and apartment properties in Greater Vancouver between Octobers 2007 and 2008. In May 2008, the overall residential benchmark price was $568,411, compared to $518,668 in October 2008.

 

“Home sales are not keeping pace with the positive economic conditions in BC,” said REBGV president, Dave Watt. “That’s a direct result of a loss of consumer confidence in the overall market. Accordingly, today’s housing market is characterized by moderating home prices and wide selection. It’s definitely a buyer’s market.”

 

Residential property sales in Greater Vancouver declined 55 per cent in October 2008 to 1,364 from the 3,028 sales recorded in October 2007.

 

Active listings totalled 19,257 in October 2008, a three per cent decline from the 19,852 active listings reported in September 2008. New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties increased one per cent to 4,867 in October 2008 compared to October 2007, when 4,819 new units were listed.

 

Sales of detached properties in October 2008 declined 56.5 per cent to 493 from the 1,133 sales recorded during the same period in 2007. The benchmark price for detached properties declined 4.7 per cent from October 2007 to $695,962. Since May 2008, the benchmark price for a detached property in Greater Vancouver has declined 9.8 per cent.

 

Sales of apartment properties in October 2008 declined 52.7 per cent to 647, compared to 1,368 sales in October 2007. The benchmark price of an apartment property declined 3.5 per cent from October 2007 to $358,359. Since May 2008, the benchmark price for an apartment property in Greater Vancouver has declined eight per cent.

 

Attached property sales in October 2008 are down 57.5 per cent to 224, compared with the 527 sales in October 2007. The benchmark price of an attached unit declined 1.4 per cent in Greater Vancouver between October 2007 and 2008 to $448,152. Since May 2008, the benchmark price for an attached property in Greater Vancouver has declined 6.4 per cent.
 
Click here to see Listing and Sales Activity Summary for October 2008.
 
Click here to see Greater Vancouver Average Price Graph for October 2008.
Read

October 28, 2008
 

Interest rates have stayed much the same this week while the stock market and the Canadian dollar have lossed ground significantly. Central Banks are still cutting rates with the US Federal Reserve expected to decrease their rate by .25% to .50%. There should be a few more decreases in the Bank of Canada rate coming in the next year.

     The bond market is also pricing in a decrease in the longer term rates. Rates are low, Real Estate values are down from their highs. Investors are going to be seeing opportunity!
 

 

Bank Prime Rate 4.00% 

 

Term

Best

Bank Posted

1 year

4.49%

6.25%

3 year

5.25%

6.75%

5 year

5.69%

7.20%

10 year

6.10%

7.80%

25 year

6.75%

n/a

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Interesting mortgage fact of the week:             
Lenders who all but closed their doors when the first hints of credit crisis trouble started to show have now reversed their direction and are re-introducing their products. Specifically, most banks stopped or restricted lending on Lines of Credit applications and some variable mortgages. We are seeing the results of steps taken by the Bank of Canada to ease the lack credit available between lenders. Good signs.
 
Courtesy of
Laura Stein, Mortgage Specialist
Telephone: 604-657-6535 ext 222 fax: 604-530-1934
Tell her Lyn sent you!

Read

Home Prices Adapt to Affordability Demands

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential property sales in Greater Vancouver declined 42.9 per cent in September 2008 to1,585 from the 2,776 sales recorded in September 2007.

 
New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties increased 28.8 per cent to 6,142 in September 2008 compared to September 2007, when 4,770 new units were listed.
  
“After five years of unprecedented increases, housing prices are beginning to realign,” REBGV president, Dave Watt said. “Although the economic situation in the United States has affected consumer confidence globally, the consensus view remains that our local housing market is underpinned by solid economic fundamentals.”
 
Sales of detached properties in September 2008 declined 50.3 per cent to 546 from the 1,099 units sold during the same period in 2007. The benchmark price, as calculated by the MLSLink Housing Price Index®, for detached properties declined 1.6 per cent from September 2007 to $726,331. Since May 2008, the benchmark price for a detached property in Greater Vancouver has declined 5.8 per cent.
  
Sales of apartment properties declined 35.1 per cent last month to 764, compared to 1,177 sales in September 2007. The benchmark price of an apartment property declined 0.7 per cent from September 2007 to $369,062. Since May 2008, the benchmark price for an apartment property in Greater Vancouver has declined 5.2 per cent.
  
Attached property sales in September 2008 decreased 41.9 per cent to 450, compared with the 775 sales in June 2007. The benchmark price of an attached unit increased 7.6 per cent between June 2007 and 2008 to $476,585. Since May 2008, the benchmark price for an attached property in Greater Vancouver has declined 3 per cent.
  
Click here to see Listing & Sales Activity Summary for September 2008
 
Click here to see Greater Vancouver Average Price Graph September 2008
  
Read

 
 
A successful sale requires that you concentrate on six considerations: your asking price, your terms of sale, the condition of your house, its location, its accessibility, and the extent of marketing exposure your house receives. While some of these factors are beyond your control, you can compensate by taking advantage of others (like a new paint job) to make your property as attractive to prospective buyers as possible.
 
When is the best time to list a house for sale?

The "best" time to list your house is actually as soon as you decide to sell it. If you want to get the best price for your house, the key is to give yourself as much time as possible to sell it. More time means more potential buyers will probably see the house. This should result in more offers; it also gives you time to consider more options if the market is slow or initial interest is low.

Is there any seasonality to the market?

Peak selling seasons vary in different areas, and weather has a lot to do with it. Late spring and early fall are the prime listing seasons because houses tend to "show" better in those months than they do in the heat of summer or the cold of winter. And of course, people like to do their house shopping when the weather is pleasant.

But keep in mind that there are also more houses on the market during the prime seasons, so you'll have more competition. So while there is seasonality in the real estate market, it's not something that should dominate your decision on when to sell.

What about market conditions — price trends, interest rates, and the economy in general? Should they have any bearing on when I list? Probably not. Even if you're under no pressure to sell, waiting for better market conditions is not likely to increase your profit potential.

So how long should it take to sell?

Average selling times vary from 10 to 90 days, according to market conditions in a particular region or even neighbourhood, But if it hasn't sold within 30 days of being placed on the market at least one of the six considerations: price, terms, condition, location, accessibility or market exposure must be made more attractive to prospective buyers. Selling in any market is easier if you keep time on your side.
 
I´ve decided to sell my home...now what?
To list your home, call me and we´ll start with a Market Analysis of your property and your neighbourhood. I can advise you on any improvements that could help in the sale, I´ll develop a marketing strategy just for you and, together, we´ll determine the best price for your home in today´s market .
 
Once the fine points are decided upon, I´ll go over the listing contract details with you. Then leave the rest to me! I´ll make your home selling experience as easy and worry-free as possible. Call me today to get your home SOLD!

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As property listings continue to outpace sales, Greater Vancouver housing prices have drawn back the last two months from the record highs experienced in early 2008 according to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver.

Since May 2008, housing prices, as calculated by the MLSLink Housing Price Index®, across each residential category have declined. Detached properties in Greater Vancouver declined 2.3 per cent through June and July 2008, while attached were down 1 per cent and apartment properties 2 per cent over the same period.

The overall benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver has declined 2.1 per cent since the end of May 2008, from $568,411 to $556,605 in July 2008.
 “We’re seeing more price reductions in properties listed on the market, which is having a levelling impact on the housing price increases experienced at the end of last year and into the first quarter of 2008,” said Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) president, Dave Watt. “There was a slight decline in the total active listings on the market in July compared to June, which is a welcomed departure from recent trends.”
 
Residential property sales in Greater Vancouver declined 43.9 per cent in July 2008 to 2,174 from the 3,873 sales recorded in July 2007. New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties increased 24 per cent to 6,104 in July 2008 compared to July 2007, when 4,924 new units were listed. 
Sales of detached properties in July 2008 declined 44.2 per cent to 827 from the 1,483 units sold during the same period in 20070. The benchmark price for detached properties is up 5.4 per cent from July 2007 to $753,165.
 
Sales of apartment properties declined 42.3 per cent last month to 966, compared to 1,674 sales in July 2007. The benchmark price of an apartment property increased 4.7 per cent from July 2007 to $381,687.
Attached property sales in July 2008 decreased 46.8 per cent to 381, compared with the 716 sales in July 2007. The benchmark price of an attached unit increased 5.7 per cent between July 2007 and 2008 to $473,953.
 
The Real Estate industry is a key economic driver in British Columbia. The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver is an association representing more than 9,600 REALTORS®. The Real Estate Board provides a variety of membership services, including the Multiple Listing Service®. For more information on real estate, statistics, and buying or selling a home, contact a local REALTOR® or visit www.realtylink.org.
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