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Home Listings Continue to Rise in the Greater Vancouver Housing Market

Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver News Release  VANCOUVER, B.C. – October 4, 2011
 

Consistent increases in property listings and fewer home sales over the summer months has helped move the Greater Vancouver housing market into the upper end of a buyers’ market.

      The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential property sales of detached, attached and apartment properties on the region’s Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) reached 2,246 in September, a 1.2 per cent increase compared to the 2,220 sales in September 2010. Those sales also rank as the third lowest total for September over the last 10 years.

      “There's more competition amongst home sellers in today's market, providing more options for prospective buyers," Rosario Setticasi, REBGV president said."Buyers now have more properties to choose from and more time to make decisions compared to the spring season.”

      New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Greater Vancouver totalled 5,680 in September, the third highest volume for September in 17 years. This represents a 20.1 per cent increase compared to September 2010 when 4,731 properties were listed for sale on the MLS® and a 21.2 per cent increase compared to the 4,685 new listings reported in August 2011.

      The number of properties listed for sale on the Greater Vancouver MLS® system has increased each month since the beginning of the year. At 16,085, the total number of residential property listings on the MLS® increased 4.6 per cent in September compared to August 2011 and rose 4.4 per cent compared to this time last year.

      “Our sales-to-active-listing ratio currently sits at 14 per cent, which is the lowest it’s been this year. Generally analysts say that a buyer’s market takes shape when the ratio dips to about 12 to 14%, or lower, for a sustained period of time,” Setticasi said.

      The MLSLink® Housing Price Index (HPI) benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver over the last 12 months has increased 8.8 per cent to $627,994 in September 2011 from $577,174 in September 2010.

      Since reaching a peak in June of $630,921, the benchmark price for all residential properties in the region has declined 0.5 per cent.

      Sales of detached properties on the MLS® in September 2011 reached 957, an increase of 10.5 per cent from the 866 detached sales recorded in September 2010, and a 32.8 per cent decrease from the 1,423 units sold in September 2009. The benchmark price for detached properties increased 13.4 per cent from September 2010 to $896,701.

      Sales of apartment properties reached 922 in September 2011, a 5 per cent decrease compared to the 971 sales in September 2010, and a decrease of 38.1 per cent compared to the 1,489 sales in September 2009. The benchmark price of an apartment property increased 4.4 per cent from September 2010 to $405,569.

      Attached property sales in September 2011 totalled 367, a 4.2 per cent decrease compared to the 383 sales in September 2010, and a 43.3 per cent decrease from the 647 attached properties sold in September 2009. The benchmark price of an attached unit increased 5.4 per cent between September 2010 and 2011 to $516,697.
 

The real estate industry is a key economic driver in British Columbia. In 2010, 30,595 homes changed ownership in the Board's area, generating $1.28 billion in spin-off activity and 8,567 jobs. The total dollar value of residential sales transacted through the MLS® system in Greater Vancouvertotalled $21 billion in 2010. The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver is an association representing more than 10,000 REALTORS® and their companies. The Board provides a variety of member services, including the Multiple Listing Service®. For more information on real estate, statistics, and buying or selling a home, contact a local REALTOR® or visit www.rebgv.org.

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Greater Vancouver Housing Market Sees Typical Spring Activity in April

Courtesy of The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver
 
Greater Vancouver saw a typical, solid month of residential home sales on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in April, in contrast to the near record pace witnessed in the two preceding months.
 
The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential property sales of detached, attached and apartment properties in Greater Vancouver reached 3,225 in April 2011, an 8.2 per cent decrease compared to the 3,512 sales in April 2010 and a 21 per cent decline compared to the 4,080 sales in March 2011.
 
Looking back further, last month’s residential sales represent an 8.8 per cent increase over the 2,963 residential sales in April 2009, relatively unchanged compared to April 2008, and a 4.8 per cent decline compared to the 3,387 sales in April 2007.
 
“While it continues to be a seller’s market in Greater Vancouver, last month’s activity brought greater balance between supply and demand in the overall marketplace,” Rosario Setticasi, REBGV president said. “The year-over-year decline in April sales can be attributed to a less active condominium market on our MLS®, as there were more detached and townhome sales this April compared to last year.”
 
New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Greater Vancouver totalled 5,847 in April 2011. This represents a 23.5 per cent decline compared to April 2010 when 7,648 properties were listed for sale on the MLS®, which was an all-time record for April. Compared to March 2011, last month’s new listings total registered a 14 per cent decline.
 
At 14,187, the total number of residential property listings on the MLS® increased 8.2 per cent in April compared to last month and declined 10 per cent from this time last year.
 
“There’s considerable variation in activity within the communities in our region. This is causing home price trends to differ depending on the area,” Setticasi said. “Your local REALTOR® is a valuable resource for obtaining the most accurate, up-to-date market evaluation.”
 
The MLSLink® Housing Price Index (HPI) benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver over the last 12 months has increased 5 per cent to $622,991 in April 2011 from $593,419 in April 2010.
 
Sales of detached properties on the MLS® in April 2011 reached 1,402, an increase of 2.3 per cent from the 1,370 detached sales recorded in April 2010, and a 17.8 per cent increase from the 1,190 units sold in April 2009. The benchmark price for detached properties increased 7.4 per cent from April 2010 to $879,039.
 
Sales of apartment properties reached 1,201 in April 2011, a 21.3 per cent decrease compared to the 1,526 sales in April 2010, and an increase of 1.9 per cent compared to the 1,179 sales in April 2009. The benchmark price of an apartment property increased 2.9 per cent from April 2010 to $409,242.
 
Attached property sales in April 2011 totalled 622, a 1 per cent increase compared to the 616 sales in April 2010, and a 4.7 per cent increase from the 594 attached properties sold in April 2009. The benchmark price of an attached unit increased 2.4 per cent between April 2010 and 2011 to $514,670.

 

The real estate industry is a key economic driver in British Columbia. In 2010, 30,595 homes changed ownership in the Board's area, generating $1.28 billion in spin-off activity and 8,567 jobs. The total dollar value of residential sales transacted through the MLS® system in Greater Vancouver totalled $21 billion in 2010.



 
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Number of Listings Rise to Start Off the Spring Season!

VANCOUVER, B.C. – April 6, 2010

A steady influx of new listings has helped create a balanced ‘typical spring’ housing market in the Greater Vancouver region.
 
The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that new listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Greater Vancouver totalled 7,004 in March 2010. This represents a 60%increase compared to March 2009 when 4,385 new units were listed, and a 52.1% increase compared to February 2010 when 4,606 properties were listed on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®). At 13,538, the total number of property listings on the Multiple Listing Service (MLS®) increased 19% in March compared to last month, but remains 7.6% below this time last year.
 
“The total number of homes listed for sale on our MLS® is at its highest level in 10 months, which translates into more options and variety for those looking to buy during the traditionally busy spring period,” Jake Moldowan, REBGV president said.
 
Residential property sales in Greater Vancouver reached 3,137 in March 2010, a 38.5% increase compared to March 2009, a 4.7% increase over March 2008, and a 12.4% decrease compared to March 2007. The current figure also represents a 26.8% increase compared to the 2,473 sales recorded in February 2010.
 

“With a sales-to-listing ratio of 23%, we see a healthy balance between buyer demand and seller supply in the marketplace,” Moldowan said.

 
Over the last 12 months, the MLSLink® Housing Price Index (HPI) benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver increased 20.3% to $584,435 from $485,845 in March 2009. This price is 2.8% above the previous high point in the market in May 2008 when the residential benchmark price sat at $568,411.
 
Sales of detached properties in March 2010 reached 1,336, an increase of 49% from the 897 detached sales recorded in March 2009 and a 19.7% increase from the 1,116 units sold in March 2008. The benchmark price for detached properties increased 23.3% from March 2009 to $800,341, but declined 0.6% compared to last month when the benchmark price was $800,796.
 
Sales of apartment properties in March 2010 reached 1,252, an increase of 28.3% compared to the 976 sales in March 2009 and a decline of 8.6% compared to the 1,370 sales in March 2008.The benchmark price of an apartment property increased 17.3% from March 2009 to $395,507 and is up 1.2% compared to last month when the benchmark price was $390,899.
 
Attached property sales in March 2010 totalled 549, an increase of 40.1% compared to the 392 sales in March 2009 and a 7.4% increase from the 511 attached properties sold in March 2008. The benchmark price of an attached unit increased 17.3% between March 2009 and 2010 to $493,263, but declined 0.5 % compared to last month when the benchmark price was $495,496.
 
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Slow Start/Strong Finish for Housing Market in 2009!

After beginning the year at near record low sales levels, buyers’ confidence in the Greater Vancouver housing market quickly returned, allowing for significant and sustained increases in the number of residential property sales for much of 2009.

 
The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that total unit sales of detached, attached and apartment properties in 2009 reached 35,669, a 44.8% increase from the 24,626 unit sales recorded in 2008, but a 6.3% decline from the 38,050 residential sales in 2007.
 
The number of homes listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Greater Vancouver declined 15.5% in 2009 to 52,869 compared to the 62,561 properties listed in 2008.
 
“Low interest rates, an economy emerging from recession and continuing to improve, and consumer confidence led to the resurgence experienced in the Greater Vancouver housing market in 2009,” Scott Russell, REBGV president said. “Home sales neared or passed monthly records in Greater Vancouver throughout the latter half of 2009. In fact, last month’s home sales rank as the third highest selling December in the 90-year history of our organization.”
 
Residential property sales in Greater Vancouver totalled 2,515 in December 2009, an increase of 172.2% from the 924 sales recorded in December 2008, and an 18.4% decline compared to November 2009 when 3,083 home sales occurred. 
 
The residential benchmark price, as calculated by the MLSLink Housing Price Index®, for Greater Vancouver increased 16.2% to $562,463 between Decembers 2008 and 2009.
 
New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Greater Vancouver totalled 2,153 in December 2009. This represents a 38.9% increase compared to the 1,550 new units listed in December 2008 and a 41.1% decline compared to November 2009 when 3,653 properties were listed.
 

“The number of homes listed for sale on our MLS® has been in decline in Greater Vancouver for eight of the last nine months, which results in upward pressure on home prices and less selection for buyers to choose from,” Russell said.

Total active listings in Greater Vancouver currently sit at 8,939, a decrease of 41% from December 2008, and a decrease of 19% from November 2009.
 
Sales of detached properties in December 2009 increased 159.2% to 902, compared to 348 sales in December 2008. The benchmark price for detached properties increased 18.3% to $766,816 compared to December 2008.
 
Sales of apartment properties in December 2009 increased 176.7% to 1,154, compared to 417 sales in December 2008. The benchmark price of an apartment property increased 14.8% since December 2008 to $382,573.
 
Attached property sales in December 2009 increased 188.7% to 459, compared with the 159 sales in December 2008. The benchmark price of an attached unit increased 12.9% between Decembers 2008 and 2009 to $478,093. 
 
To read the complete report from the REBGV, go to
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High Sales Levels Spur Rise in Home Values

According to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver, strong demand has led to a steady rise in Greater Vancouver home prices compared to last year.

 

Over the last 12 months, the MLSLink® Housing Price Index (HPI) benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver increased 6.8 per cent to $553,702 from $518,668 in October 2008.

 

“While home prices have been rising in 2009, they have not eclipsed the peaks reached in early 2008,” Scott Russell, Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) president said. “We’re coming off several months of unseasonably high sales levels, which has allowed for a gradual increase in home values this year,”

 

The REBGV reports that residential property sales in Greater Vancouver totalled 3,704 in October 2009, an increase of 4.1 per cent from the 3,559 sales recorded in September 2009, and an increase of 171.6 per cent compared to October 2008 when 1,364 sales were recorded. Looking back two years, last month’s sales increased 22.3 per cent compared to October 2007 when 3,028 sales were recorded.

 

“High confidence and low mortgage rates are continuing to drive the activity we’re seeing in the housing market today,” Russell said.

 

New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Greater Vancouver totalled 4,977 in October 2009. This represents a 2.3 per cent increase compared to October 2008 when 4,867 new units were listed, and a 13.4 per cent decline compared to September 2009 when 5,764 properties were listed on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Greater Vancouver.

 

At 12,084, the total number of property listings on the MLS® decreased 4.1 per cent in October compared to last month and declined 37 per cent from this time last year.

 

Sales of detached properties increased 201.6 per cent to 1,487 from the 493 detached sales recorded during the same period in 2008. The benchmark price, as calculated by the MLSLink Housing Price Index®, for detached properties increased 7.7 per cent from October 2008 to $749,808.

 

Sales of apartment properties in October 2009 increased 148.4 per cent to 1,607, compared to 647sales in October 2008. The benchmark price of an apartment property increased 6.3 per cent from October 2008 to $380,975.

 

Attached property sales in October 2009 are up 172.3 per cent to 610, compared with the 224 sales in October 2008. The benchmark price of an attached unit increased 4.6 per cent between Octobers 2008 and 2009 to $468,798.

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Central Banks Signal Low Rates Here to Stay
The Financial Post

 OTTAWA-- Despite growing confidence that economic growth is in the offing, monetary policy around the world is likely to remain "ultra-accommodative," perhaps until 2011, as doubt remains as to whether or not the growth expected this quarter is sustainable, analysts say.


That is the view emerging following the weekend gathering of the world's leading central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyo., highlighted by remarks from Ben Bernanke, U.S. Federal Reserve chairman, who warned of the uncertainties ahead, and Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank, who suggested he is in no rush to reverse emergency stimulus measures.
 
"The key message from Jackson Hole was that monetary policy is likely to remain ultra-accommodative for the foreseeable future - at least for the next several years," said Julian Jessop, chief international economist at Capital Economics of London.

"It seems more likely that there will be no increases in interest rates in any of the major economies over the next 12 to 18 months."

Strategists at RBC Capital Markets concurred, adding in a note released Monday: "We continue to believe the economic backdrop will warrant a significant additional period of low rates. Indeed, even at the Jackson Hole conference, there was not even a suggestion that we should be braced for anything other than that outcome."

This outlook applies to Canada as well. Banc of America Securities-Merrill Lynch, as part of global report on monetary policy, said it does not expect the Bank of Canada to begin raising rates until 2011 - well past its pledge to keep the key policy rate, at 0.25%, until June 2010.

Canada has a significant output gap - the difference between potential and real gross domestic product - and the rate at which money is deployed in the economy, or money velocity, has shrunk 15% since late last year even though the central bank has taken its target rate to its lowest possible level, the BofA-Merrill Lynch analysis indicates.

"To compensate, we think the Bank of Canada will probably need to keep rates lower... to ensure that money creation remains in the double-digit [growth] territory needed to reinflate the economy and close the output gap," the report says.

This outlook is similar to what economists at Laurentian Bank Securities suggested last week. They said a lack of pricing power for firms, a sizeable amount of excess supply and virtually non-existent upward pressure from labour costs means the bulk of policy tightening would not materialize until 2011.

The Bank of Canada signalled in its last economic outlook that it expected economic growth to resume this quarter, marking, technically, the end of a deep but relatively short recession. It expects growth this quarter of 1.3%, 3% in the final three months of 2009, and the latter again in 2010.

Further boosting the recovery story was data from Japan, Germany and France that indicated economic growth in the second quarter. But there are growing concerns about the sustainability of this emerging recovery. In a note published last week, Olivier Blanchard, chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, warned of a difficult recovery that would take years to unfold as elements of the financial system remain dysfunctional.

Of particular concern in his outlook was the source of demand once governments phased out fiscal stimuli. The worry is that U.S. business investment and household spending would remain weak, and Asian economies would fail to pick up the slack.  Still, some leading central bankers warn about leaving interest rates too low too long.

Masaaki Shirakawa, governor at Bank of Japan, told his peers at Jackson Hole that policymakers must avoid economic bubbles fostered by expectations that interest rates will remain low.

"Shirakawa's point about the need to prevent future bubbles is weighing more on minds of central bankers, so maybe they do have to be a little more careful," said David Cohen, director of Asian economic forecasting at Action Economics in Singapore.

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Property Sales Strengthen in Current Market Cycle

A news release from the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver
 
VANCOUVER, B.C. - April 2, 2009.
The Metro Vancouver housing market experienced a movement away from volatility and toward stability to start the spring season.

 

Home sales in March 2009 returned to levels witnessed at the beginning of the decade, with 2,265 sales recorded across Metro Vancouver for the month, a 53 per cent increase over February but a 24.4 per cent decrease over March 2008, when 2,997 sales were recorded.

 

Since 1999, March sales have increased 31 per cent, on average, over the month of February. March 2009 marks the second consecutive month that sales have outperformed the ten-year average for this

month-over-month comparison.

 
"There’s more confidence in the housing market today than we were seeing late last year. Sales activity is rising to more typical levels given the season, and the number of homes being listed for sale is
levelling off," said Scott Russell, president of the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV).
 
New residential listings on the MLS® declined 22 per cent in March 2009 to 4,385 compared to

March 2008. This is the fifth month in a row that new listings have decreased year-over-year and the third consecutive month where those declines exceeded 20 per cent. Despite these trends, total active listings at the end of March 2009 had still reached 14,579, a 19 per cent increase compared to the end of March 2008.

 
"REALTORS® are seeing an increasing level of interest from first-time buyers who are attracted to

low interest rates, good supply of housing, greater affordability, and a considerably lower overall cost of servicing a mortgage compared to recent years," Russell said.

 

Sales of detached properties in March 2009 declined 19.6 per cent to 897 from the 1,116 units sold during the same period in 2008. The benchmark price, as calculated by the MLSLink Housing Price Index®, for detached properties declined 15.1 per cent from March 2008 to $649,342.

 
Sales of apartment properties declined 28.8 per cent last month to 976, compared to the 1,370 sales in March 2008. The benchmark price of an apartment property declined 13.5 per cent from March 2008 to $337,099.
 
Attached property sales in March 2009 decreased 23.3 per cent to 392, compared with the 511 sales during the same month in 2008. The benchmark price of an attached unit declined 11.2 per cent between March 2008 and 2009 to $420,563.
 
To see the news release in its entirety, including graphs and charts, go to http://www.rebgv.org/sites/default/files/REBGV%20Stats%20Package_April%202009.pdf
 
The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver is an association representing more than 9,400 REALTORS®. The Real Estate Board provides a variety of membership services, including the Multiple Listing Service®. For more information on real estate, statistics and buying or selling a home contact a local REALTOR® or visit www.rebgv.org.
 
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Royal LePage Foresees
National Home Prices Declining Three Percent This Year
 

January 6, 2009 - THE CANADIAN PRESS

 
TORONTO - The average price of a house in Canada is likely to decline by three per cent this year, according to Royal LePage Real Estate Services (TSX:BRE.UN). The number of residential resale transactions is forecast to decline 3.5 per cent nationally, though the country's largest realty operator expects that there will still be local warm spots.
 
The forecast issued today follows a "significant reset" in 2008 - which Royal LePage predicted a year ago would see a 3.5 per cent average increase across the country.

 

In the event, preliminary numbers show a 1.1 per cent decline for 2008. Royal LePage says this came as "emotional reaction to recent economic and political instability did much to dampen consumer confidence during the latter part of 2008, causing a marked slowdown in house sales activity."

However, it predicts that "a more rational understanding of the issues" along with government corrective measures will cause activity to pick up in the latter half of 2009.

 
Overall, Royal LePage sees "only modest price and unit sales corrections." Nationally, the average house price is forecast to dip to $295,000, off from $304,000 in 2008, which in turn was down from $307,265 in the peak year of 2007.
 
"While Canada's housing market is anticipated to continue to move through a period of adjustment over the next six months, we should expect modestly lower home prices, not a U.S.-style collapse, which was brought on by a structural failure of the entire American credit system," stated Royal LePage CEO Phil Soper. "Most consumers are not aware that nationally, Canadian housing market activity peaked in 2007 and has been adjusting lower since. We are well into this inevitable cyclical correction."
 
In spite of the cooling trend on a national level, price and activity gains are still anticipated in some provinces, the Royal LePage report added. In mid-sized cities where prices remain below the national average, such as Regina and Winnipeg, prices are expected to increase moderately. Meanwhile, the steepest decline is forecast for Canada's most expensive city, Vancouver - "a natural cyclical reaction to an extended period of high price appreciation."
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Improved Housing Affordability
to Greater Vancouver in 2008

 
VANCOUVER, B.C. – January 5, 2009 –
The record-breaking real estate market cycle in Greater Vancouver, longer than normal at seven consecutive years, ended in 2008 amidst global economic challenges. The change brought relief from rising prices that saw benchmark prices escalate from $357,770 for a single family detached home in December 2001 to $648,421 by December 2008.

 

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that sales of detached, attached and apartment properties decreased 35.3 per cent in 2008 to 24,626 sales compared to 38,050 sales in 2007. Property listings for the year increased 13.9 per cent to 62,561 compared to 2007 when 54,945 new properties were listed.

“Trends in the latter half of 2008 showed a consistent month-over-month decrease in residential housing prices, a departure from the rising home prices and record-breaking sales that were experienced in Greater Vancouver for much of this decade,” said REBGV president, Dave Watt. “It’s also important to note that our December statistics show a third consecutive month of a decrease in active

property listings in Greater Vancouver. That means supply is coming down,” Watt said. “Last month was also the first time in 27 years that Greater Vancouver homes sales for December were higher than November.”

 

Residential benchmark prices, as calculated by the MLSLink Housing Price Index®, declined 10.9 per cent between Decembers 2007 and 2008. Since May 2008, the overall residential benchmark price has declined 14.8 per cent in Greater Vancouver to $484,211 from $568,411.

 
“For buyers, lower prices haven’t been a concern as much as the perception that prices are falling. It’s difficult to identify the ‘bottom’ of the market. The reality is that people tend to buy when prices are going up, not when they’re going down,” Watt said.
 
In December 2008, sales of detached, attached and apartment properties totalled 924, a decrease of 51.3 per cent compared to the 1,897 sales in December 2007. New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties declined 8.6 per cent to 1,550 in December 2008 compared to December 2007 when 1,695 new units were listed. Total listings in December declined 17.2 per cent to 15,193 from the 18,348 total active listings in Greater Vancouver in November 2008. Sales of detached properties in December 2008 declined 48.7 per cent to 348 from the 679 units sold during the same period in 2007.
 
The benchmark price for detached properties declined 11.2 per cent from $730,399 in December 2007 to $648,421 in December 2008. Since May 2008, the benchmark price for a detached property in Greater Vancouver has declined 15.9 per cent. Sales of apartment properties declined 53.7 per cent last month to 417 compared to 901 sales in December 2007.
 
The benchmark price of an apartment property declined 11.7 per cent from $377,579 in December 2007 to $333,275 in December 2008. Since May 2008, the benchmark price for an apartment property in Greater Vancouver has declined 14.5 per cent. Attached property sales in December 2008 decreased 49.8 per cent to 159, compared with the 317 sales in December 2007. The benchmark price of an attached unit declined 7.4 per cent from $456,941 in December 2007 to $423,338 in December 2008.
 
Since May 2008, the benchmark price for an attached property in Greater Vancouver has declined 11.6 per cent.
 
The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver is an association representing more than 9,500 REALTORS®. The Real Estate Board provides a variety of membership services, including the Multiple Listing Service®. For more information on real estate, statistics, and buying or selling a home, contact a local REALTOR® or visit www.rebgv.org.
 
To read the REBGV latest news release in its entirety, including the latest statistics, click here!
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Bank Prime Rate 4.00% 
 
Term
Best
Bank Posted
1 year
4.49%
6.35%
3 year
5.25%
7.05%
5 year
5.69%
7.20%
10 year
6.10%
8.00%
25 year
6.75%
n/a
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
No real changes in interest rates this week. The Bank of Canada will meet again on December 9th and the expectation is for a decrease in the rate. Inflation concerns are cooling all over the world and central banks are committed to lowering rates to keep things moving.
 
The Canadian Real Estate values are projected to drop by about 5% in the next year creating more opportunities for buyers and investors. Speculation is that this will create a healthy market as prices come back into the realm of affordable. If you are in a variable mortgage…..keep floating!  
 
Courtesy of
Laura Stein - The Mortgage Centre
Telephone: 604-657-6535 ext 22
2

www.mortgagecents.ca

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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BC will outperform most other provinces in economic and job growth during the next two years.
 
Existing home sales will decline slightly as mortgage carrying costs rise in response to higher home prices and mortgage rates. Income and population growth stemming from tight labour markets will put upward pressure on existing home sales, lessening the decline.
 

BC will outperform most other provinces in economic and job growth during the next two years. This relative strength will translate into a high level of existing home sales, housing starts and house

prices.

 
Move-up buyers and people downsizing their residences will keep the number of resale transactions above the ten-year average. Existing home sales will decline during the next two years in response to high home prices, a rise in mortgage rates in 2009, and slower job growth.
 

High home prices will result in more homes being listed for sale. This increase in supply will slow growth in the provincial average MLS® price from the double-digit pace of the past four years. Centres where the local economy is more diversified and homeownership demand remains strong will record double-digit price gains again in 2008.

 
Fewer homes will be started as tight resale market conditions ease and potential homebuyers are more able to satisfy their housing needs in established neighbourhoods. Single-detached home starts will trend lower, as builders balance the high cost of land and building materials with what price conscious homebuyers will pay. Multiple-unit starts will account for the lion’s share of new home construction. With demand shifting to denser housing forms, more than sixty per cent of starts will be in multiple-unit housing developments. The large number of projects already in the construction pipeline in Vancouver and Kelowna will ensure multiple-unit starts will be at high levels.
 
Mortgage rates are expected to trend marginally lower throughout 2008, but will be  within 25-50 basis points of their current levels. For 2009, posted mortgage rates will begin to drift up slightly as the year progresses. For 2008 and 2009, the one-year posted mortgage rate is forecast to be in the 6.50-7.50 per cent range, while three and five-year posted mortgage rates are forecast to be in the 6.75-7.50 per cent range.
 
Exerpts from CMHCs Housing Market Outlook - British Columbia Region Highlights - Second Quarter 2008. For complete report, visit http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/65442/65442_2008_Q02.pdf.

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MLS® sales in Metro Vancouver will come down off the near-record high reached in 2007, but stay well above the ten-year average of 31,000. Strong homebuyer demand, fuelled by job growth and a steady flow of people moving to the region will keep sales brisk. However, waning consumer confidence and high mortgage carrying costs will constrain home sales. MLS® sales will dip eight per cent to 36,000 units in 2008, and a further three per cent in 2009 as mortgage rates start to creep up.

The main factors tempering homebuyer demand will be high home prices and softening consumer sentiment. With the average resale home price in Metro

Vancouver at more than $600,000 and still rising, some potential buyers will opt to delay their purchase. Some low equity and first time home buyers could find it difficult to negotiate a mortgage with achievable monthly carrying costs, in spite of low mortgage rates. First time homebuyers are an important source of homeownership demand, particularly for apartment condominium units, making up more than one-third of people who bought a home in Metro Vancouver over the past year. The housing market collapse in some parts of the US has added uncertainty in consumers’ minds. This unease, combined with slowing economic growth in Central Canada and layoffs in the BC forest industry have contributed to lower levels of consumer confidence. Combined with mortgage rates above year-ago levels, these factors led to a decline in home sales in the first quarter of 2008 and will keep sales flat in the near term.


The supply of resale homes on the market will grow as homeowners look to capitalize on the home equity build-up resulting from four straight years of double-digit home price increases. The decision to sell may take on added urgency in light of the housing market downturn in the US. In the first quarter of 2008, the average number of active MLS® listings for sale in Metro Vancouver increased nine per cent compared to the same period last year, with the supply of apartment condominiums for sale increasing more than other home types. At the end of the first quarter there was a five month supply of homes on the market, up from four months one year ago. This level of supply is still shy of the seven to eight months supply that has characterized balanced market conditions historically in Metro Vancouver. Look for this trend of increasing listings to continue through the remainder of this year and into next.

The combination of moderating sales and more homes on the market will bring demand and supply conditions closer to balance and slow home price growth. Moderating sales and more homes on the market will mean fewer multiple-offers per property and more choice for homebuyers. Homes will take longer to sell as the market cools from the red hot pace of the past few years, and reflect a more normal pace. Home price growth will slow into the single digit range this year, with eight per cent appreciation in values forecast, and a further five per cent growth expected in 2009.



This is an article from CMHC's Housing Market Outlook - Vancouver and Abbotsford CMAs Second Quarter 2008. To read this report in its entirety, go to http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/64363/64363_2008_B01.pdf

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