That is the view emerging following the weekend gathering of the world's leading central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyo., highlighted by remarks from Ben Bernanke, U.S. Federal Reserve chairman, who warned of the uncertainties ahead, and Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank, who suggested he is in no rush to reverse emergency stimulus measures.
 
"The key message from Jackson Hole was that monetary policy is likely to remain ultra-accommodative for the foreseeable future - at least for the next several years," said Julian Jessop, chief international economist at Capital Economics of London.

"It seems more likely that there will be no increases in interest rates in any of the major economies over the next 12 to 18 months."

Strategists at RBC Capital Markets concurred, adding in a note released Monday: "We continue to believe the economic backdrop will warrant a significant additional period of low rates. Indeed, even at the Jackson Hole conference, there was not even a suggestion that we should be braced for anything other than that outcome."

This outlook applies to Canada as well. Banc of America Securities-Merrill Lynch, as part of global report on monetary policy, said it does not expect the Bank of Canada to begin raising rates until 2011 - well past its pledge to keep the key policy rate, at 0.25%, until June 2010.

Canada has a significant output gap - the difference between potential and real gross domestic product - and the rate at which money is deployed in the economy, or money velocity, has shrunk 15% since late last year even though the central bank has taken its target rate to its lowest possible level, the BofA-Merrill Lynch analysis indicates.

"To compensate, we think the Bank of Canada will probably need to keep rates lower... to ensure that money creation remains in the double-digit [growth] territory needed to reinflate the economy and close the output gap," the report says.

This outlook is similar to what economists at Laurentian Bank Securities suggested last week. They said a lack of pricing power for firms, a sizeable amount of excess supply and virtually non-existent upward pressure from labour costs means the bulk of policy tightening would not materialize until 2011.

The Bank of Canada signalled in its last economic outlook that it expected economic growth to resume this quarter, marking, technically, the end of a deep but relatively short recession. It expects growth this quarter of 1.3%, 3% in the final three months of 2009, and the latter again in 2010.

Further boosting the recovery story was data from Japan, Germany and France that indicated economic growth in the second quarter. But there are growing concerns about the sustainability of this emerging recovery. In a note published last week, Olivier Blanchard, chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, warned of a difficult recovery that would take years to unfold as elements of the financial system remain dysfunctional.

Of particular concern in his outlook was the source of demand once governments phased out fiscal stimuli. The worry is that U.S. business investment and household spending would remain weak, and Asian economies would fail to pick up the slack.  Still, some leading central bankers warn about leaving interest rates too low too long.

Masaaki Shirakawa, governor at Bank of Japan, told his peers at Jackson Hole that policymakers must avoid economic bubbles fostered by expectations that interest rates will remain low.

VANCOUVER, BC August 5, 2009  - The Greater Vancouver housing market gained further momentum in July with record sales levels and a continued strengthening of home prices. The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that the number of residential property sales in Greater Vancouver totalled 4,114 in July 2009, becoming the highest volume of sales ever recorded within the REBGV for that month, outpacing the 4,023 sales in July 2003, which is the only other year that July sales exceeded the 4,000 mark.

Since the beginning of the year, the MLSLink® Housing Price Index (HPI) benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver has increased 9.2 per cent to $528,821 from $484,211. However, home prices compared to July 2008 levels are down 5 per cent.

New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties declined in Greater Vancouver, down 17.4 per cent to 5,041 in July 2009 compared to July 2008, when 6,104 new units were listed. At 12,482, the total number of property listings on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) declined 5.8 per cent compared to last month and 34 per cent compared to July 2008.

2008 to $711,702. Since the beginning of the year, the benchmark price for detached properties in Greater Vancouver has increased 9.8 per cent.

Market Conditions Drive Strong June Housing Sales!

VANCOUVER, B.C. – July 3, 2009 – The combination of low interest rates and more affordable pricing helped propel Greater Vancouver home sale numbers to the second all-time highest total for the month of June.

New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties declined 17.9 per cent to 5,372 in June 2009 compared to June 2008, when 6,546 new units were listed. However, new listings increased 13.5 per cent from May to June of this year. Total active listings in Greater Vancouver currently sit at 13,252, down 27 per cent from June 2008 and 2.9 per cent below the active listings count at the end of May 2009.

“Price reductions and low interest rates have created an improvement in affordability, which is causing the number of sales to rise to levels comparable to 2003 to 2007,” Scott Russell, REBGV president said.
 
“Many people who were reluctant to purchase a home last fall and earlier this year are returning to the market because they see conditions that appeal to their personal and financial needs,” Russell said. “However, the current marketplace is such that buyers are more inclined to walk if they don’t like the terms of an offer.”

Bright spots in Greater Vancouver in June 2009 compared to June 2008:

Detached

• Burnaby up 109.7 per cent (151 units sold from 72)
• Coquitlam up 122.2 per cent (160 units sold from 72)
• Delta - South up 107.7 per cent (56 units sold from 27)
• Maple Ridge/Pitt Meadows up 54.3 per cent (162 units sold from 105)
• New Westminster up 104.8 per cent (43 units sold from 21)
• North Vancouver up 96.2 per cent (153 units sold from 78)
• Port Moody/ Belcarra up 120 per cent (33 units sold from 15)
• Richmond up 77.4 per cent (204 units sold from 115)
• Squamish up 107.7 per cent (27 units sold from 13)
• Sunshine Coast up 33.9 per cent (75 units sold from 56)
• Vancouver East up 71.2 per cent (238 units sold from 139)
• Vancouver West up 85.2 per cent (200 units sold from 108)
• West Vancouver/Howe Sound up 117.8 per cent (98 units sold from 45)

Attached

• Burnaby up 81.8 per cent (140 units sold from 77)
• Coquitlam up 80 per cent (54 units sold from 30)
• Maple Ridge/Pitt Meadows up 48.6 per cent (55 units sold from 37)
• North Vancouver up 121.2 per cent (73 units sold from 33)
• Port Coquitlam up 82.6 per cent (42 units sold from 23)
• Port Moody/ Belcarra up 77.3 per cent (39 units sold from 22)
• Richmond up 84.5 per cent (155 units sold from 84)
• Vancouver East up 118.5 per cent (59 units sold from 27)
• Vancouver West up 121.8 per cent (122 units sold from 55)

Apartments

• Burnaby up 60.4 per cent (239 units sold from 149)
• Coquitlam up 93.9 per cent (95 units sold from 49)
• New Westminster up 57.1 per cent (121 units sold from 77)
• North Vancouver up 71.4 per cent (120 units sold from 70)
• Port Coquitlam up 58.1 per cent (49 units sold from 31)
• Port Moody/Belcarra up 128.6 per cent (48 units sold from 21)
• Richmond up 54.1 per cent (225 units sold from 146)
• Vancouver East up 58.7 per cent (165 units sold from 104)
• Vancouver West up 87.2 per cent (627 units sold from 335)
• West Vancouver/Howe Sound up 155.6 per cent (23 units sold from 9)

Buyer Activity Brings Greater Stability to Housing Market

 

VANCOUVER, B.C. – May 4, 2009 – With more buyers and fewer homes for sale in recent months, the Greater Vancouver housing market has entered a more moderate and balanced state.

 

For the sixth consecutive month, new listings for detached, attached and apartment properties declined in Greater Vancouver, down 33.7 per cent to 4,649 in April 2009 compared to April 2008, when 7,010 new units were listed. The total number of property listings on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®), while slightly down compared to last month, remains unchanged compared to the same period in 2008.

 

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential property sales in Greater Vancouver totalled 2,963 in April 2009, a decline of eight per cent from the 3,218 sales recorded in April 2008, and an increase of 31 per cent compared to last month.

 

“We’re seeing greater balance in the housing market, as evidenced by a strong sales to active listings ratio of over 19 per cent,” Scott Russell, REBGV president said. “The result is a relatively stable market in which homes are being realistically priced.

 

“The bridge between buyer demand and housing supply is continuing to narrow, which, as we see, helps bring stability to home prices,” he said. “The trends in our housing market over the last couple of months offer a much more comfortable, historically normal set of conditions.”

 

Sales of detached properties declined eight per cent to 1,190 from the 1,293 detached sales recorded during the same period in 2008. The benchmark price, as calculated by the MLSLink Housing Price Index®, for detached properties declined 12.2 per cent from April 2008 to $675,268.

 

Sales of apartment properties in April 2009 declined 10.5 per cent to 1,179, compared to 1,317 sales in April 2008. The benchmark price of an apartment property declined 12.6 per cent from April 2008 to $340,203.

 

Attached property sales in April 2009 are down 2.3 per cent to 594, compared with the 608 sales in April 2008. The benchmark price of an attached unit decreased 9.7 per cent between April 2008 and 2009 to $431,759.

 

Bright spots in Greater Vancouver in April 2009 compared to April 2008:

 

Detached:

Vancouver West        up 59.5 per cent (193 units sold from 121)

 

Attached:

Port Coquitlam          up 69.6 per cent (39 units sold from 23)

Richmond                  up 17.9 per cent (132 units sold from 112)

Vancouver West        up 46.3 per cent (98 units sold from 67)

 

Apartments:

North Vancouver      up 29.2 per cent (84 units sold from 65)

 

To read the entire news release, or to find more interesting articles and statistics, visit http://www.rebgv.org.

 

 

 

1) Housing Starts Drop 70%!
http://www.vancouversun.com/Business/story.html?id=1369898