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March 18th Deadline Could Spark a Stampede!
 
For the second time in twelve months, the Department of Finance has tightened rules on residential mortgages to help slow the pace of household debt accumulation.
 
New rules pertaining to mortgage financing were just announced by the Federal government effective March 18th. Here are the highlights:
  • Maximum amortization reduced to 30 years from 35 years.
  • Maximum refinancing limits reduced to 85% from 90%.
  • No more ability for lenders to receive mortgage insurance on lines of credit (beginning April 18th).

More details regarding these changes will no doubt trickle out over the next few days. Although the first two points are directly aimed at high ratio financing involving the mortgage insurers it will be interesting to see if any lenders eliminate 35 year amortizations even on conventional financing deals.

 

The first point will directly impact first time buyers as they are typically the segment of the market with the smallest down payments and are thus forced to have their mortgages insured. In the expensive Vancouver market it is becoming more rare to see first time buyers with a realistic ability to finance their first home on a 25 year basis.
 
The changes effective in 60+ days might spark a bit of buying in this segment of the market as they look to lock down mortgage approvals with 35 year amortizations before the deadline.
 
Homeowners with substantial equity and higher incomes have taken out extended amortization mortgages for maximum affordability and/or repayment flexibility (including many who actually pay down their mortgages quickly). 

 

The cap on refinancing will have some impact on them, although it is too early to tell how much. It has been estimated that 35-40% of all refinances are used for debt consolidation so the government has effectively increased the cost of debt on the margin given that mortgage credit is one of the cheapest forms of debt consolidation in the marketplace.
 

Take note that CMHC purshases with 5% down are not affected by these rules because a purchase is treated differently than a refinance. There was substantial concern in the industry that the government was going to increase minimum downpayment requirements from the current 5% level to possibly as high as 10%. Thankfully, this didn't  happen although it may down the road.

 

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CMHC Forecasts Conservative Growth in Greater Vancouver & Kelowna

 
After the highly irregular and tumultuous real estate markets of 2008 and 2009, the BC real estate market returned to a relative state of normalcy in 2010. Canada seemingly avoided the worst of the turmoil of the great recession and this was reflected in the housing market, which bounced back quickly from the lows it saw in early 2009.
 
In Vancouver, an influx of new immigrant wealth, primarily from mainland China, has fuelled strong growth throughout the city. Our stats show that on Vancouver's Westside, Chinese buyers account for 78% of sales of homes valued at over $2 million. It is evident that many local sellers who 'cash out' from the Westside either downsize to condos or townhomes or relocate to other parts of the city or province. This, in turn, pushes prices up in these neighbourhoods, albeit at a lower rate than in the wealthiest parts of Vancouver.
 
With a 10-year backlog of investor-category immigrants from China, this trend is expected to continue. That said, it's unclear what further effect they will have on the upper-end of the market. Vancouver's red-hot market stabilized in 2010 and our internal projections show a similar pattern across the province in 2011.
 

Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation Forecasts:

 
MLS Average Price
Price 2011
% Change
Greater Vancouver
$665,000
$685,000
+ 3.0%
Victoria
$500,000
$490,000
- 2.0%
Kelowna
$518,000
$530,000
+ 2.3%

 

 

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Real Estate Market Stable at 2009 Year-End

VANCOUVER, January 5, 2011 - The Greater Vancouver residential housing market entered three distinctive phases in 2010. Continued buoyancy from the post-recession recovery began the year, followed by a summer lull and, throughout the fall, a sustained period of stability.
 

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that total sales of detached, attached and apartment properties in 2010 reached 30,595, a 14.2 per cent decrease from the 35,669 sales recorded in 2009, but a 24.2 per cent increase from the 24,626 residential sales in 2008. Last year’s number of housing sales was 10.3 per cent below the ten-year average for annual Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) sales in the region.

 

The number of residential properties listed for sale on the MLS® in Greater Vancouver increased 9.7 per cent in 2010 to 58,009 compared to the 52,869 properties listed in 2009. Compared to 2008, last year’s total represents a 7.3 per cent decline compared to the 62,561 residential properties listed in 2008. The number of properties added to the MLS® peaked in April and generally declined for the remainder of the year. 
 

“The last two years have been a bit of a rollercoaster for the real estate market. However, sales over the past six months have definitely shown a trend toward stability. We think that’s good news for home buyers and sellers,” Jake Moldowan, REBGV president said. “The Greater Vancouver housing market experienced a modest increase in home prices in 2010, and a continual decrease in the number of properties being listed for sale.”

 
Residential property sales in Greater Vancouver totalled 1,899 in December 2010, a decrease of 24.5 per cent from the 2,515 sales recorded in December 2009—an all time record for the month—and a 24.3 per cent decline compared to November 2010 when 2,509 home sales occurred. 
 
More broadly, last month’s residential sales represent a 105.5 per cent increase over the 924 residential sales in December 2008, a 0.1 per cent increase compared to December 2007’s 1,897 sales, and a 12.6 per cent increase compared to the 1,686 sales in December 2006.
 
The residential benchmark price, as calculated by the MLSLink Housing Price Index®, for Greater Vancouver increased 2.7 per cent to $577,808 between Decembers 2009 and 2010. However, prices have decreased 2.6 per cent since hitting a peak of $593,419 in April 2010.

 

“Although we saw some pressure on home prices throughout the year, home values in 2010 remained relatively steady in the region compared to the last few years when we witnessed much more fluctuation,” Moldowan said.

 
New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Greater Vancouver totalled 1,699 in December 2010. This represents a 21.1 per cent decline compared to the 2,153 units listed in December 2009 and a 43.9 per cent decline compared to November 2010 when 3,030 properties were listed.
 
Sales of detached properties in December 2010 reached 769, a decrease of 14.8 per cent from the 902 detached sales recorded in December 2009, and a 121.1 per cent increase from the 348 units sold in December 2008. The benchmark price for detached properties increased 4.0 per cent from December 2009 to $797,868.
 
Sales of apartment properties reached 811 in December 2010, a decline of 29.7 per cent compared to the 1,154 sales in December 2009, and an increase of 94.5 per cent compared to the 417 sales in December 2008.The benchmark price of an apartment property increased 1.2 per cent from December 2009 to $387,115.
 
Attached property sales in December 2010 totalled 319, a decline of 30.5 per cent compared to the 459 sales in December 2009, and a 100.6 per cent increase from the 159 attached properties sold in December 2008. The benchmark price of an attached unit increased 2.7 per cent between December 2009 and 2010 to $490,869.
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Market Value vs. BC Assessment Value...
What's the Diff??
 
Your BC Property Assessment is the valuation on which your property taxes are based. You'll receive your local tax notice in June each year. The assessments are mailed out at year end and property owners must realize that annual assessments can only be appealed before January 31st.
 
Typically, there's a difference between the property value assessment on the assessment notice and the market value determined by a professional REALTOR®. Home owners often want to know what the difference is.
 
Your assessment notice is BCA’s estimate of a property’s market value as of July 1st of any given year. BCA has a database of 1.8 million properties. When a new property is created through zoning or construction, or an existing property changes, a BCA appraiser visits the site and reviews lot size, structure and other factors including whether the property is on a quiet street with backyard lanes or on a busy boulevard.
 
BCA appraisers don't visit each existing property annually to update the database. Instead, they use what is called a mass appraisal system, calculating values by evaluating prices for homes sold in each neighbourhood, or of similar units in a strata complex as of July 1st and then applying the information to arrive at an assessed value. BCA analyzes a range of factors for each property including house type, square footage, age, heating, and even outbuildings such as garages, sheds and gazebos, as well as pools and spas.
 
A REALTOR'S® market value assessment is typically current. In our active local market, six months can mean thousands or even tens of thousands of dollars difference!
 
I'll determine the value of your property by scrutinizing the most recent comparable data for homes sold in your neighbourhood on the MLS®. I'll also examine the exterior and interior of your property in detail, noting alterations and major renovations, such as new kitchens or bathrooms that affect the value of your home. I'll also take into account view lines, architectural styles and landscaping.
 
Where every lot and every home on the street are generally the same, both BCA’s value and a professional REALTOR’S® value will be similar, assuming a stable market. Differences will likely occur in neighbourhoods where every lot on every street is different, every home’s architecture is unique and every view is distinct. Differences also occur when property owners make changes such as renovations that BCA does not know about. For more information from BCA, visit www.bcassessment.bc.ca.
 
If you're considering selling your home, I'd be happy to give you a current Market Analysis for your property so you can expect the best price in today's real estate market. Call me at (604) 724-4278 to arrange a consultation.
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Macdonald Main Street Opens!

To serve you better, I'm pleased to announce the opening of my new eastside office located at 4387 Main Street and 28th Avenue!
 
The 875 square foot boutique office is located in the trendy Main Street area that borders both the east and west sides of Vancouver and serves Vancouver central and points east. 
 
 Drop by to say hello. I'm always happy to help!
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