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2008 BC and Vancouver Housing Outlook

VANCOUVER, November 2, 2007

Demand for homeownership will keep housing starts and existing home sales at above-average levels in BC and Vancouver, and push new and existing home prices higher in 2008.
Housing starts in BC will top 33,250 next year down slightly from this years level but still above average levels noted Carol Frketich, BC Regional Economist. Factors behind this demand include: unemployment near record lows, strong employment growth, rising wages, relatively low mortgage rates and growing migration. Recent financial market turmoil in the United States will keep interest rates relatively flat in Canada despite upward inflationary pressures.

In Vancouver, housing demand will be supported through 2008 by ongoing job growth and a steady flow of people moving to the region said Robyn Adamache, CMHCs Vancouver Senior Market Analyst. Solid home price gains will continue to attract investors and live-in homeowners alike. These factors, combined with Vancouvers growing international reputation as a clean, liveable city, will keep demand for new and resale housing robust. Both new home starts and existing home sales will stay near record highs, but edge down slightly in the year ahead. Look for new and resale home prices in Metro Vancouver communities to increase, but at a slower pace than in recent years.

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has been Canada's national housing agency for more than 60 years. CMHC is committed to helping Canadians access a wide choice of quality, affordable homes, while making vibrant, healthy communities and cities a reality across the country.
 
Housing Market Outlook
Total Housing Starts 2006 Actual 2007 Forecast 2008 Forecast
British Columbia 36,443 36,200 33,250
       
Abbotsford CMA1 1,207 1,150 1,200
Kelowna CMA 2,692 2,750 2,700
Vancouver CMA 18,705 19,000 18,500
Victoria CMA 2,739 2,445 2,275
 
Total M® Sales2 2006 Actual 2007 Forecast 2008 Forecast
British Columbia 96,671 100,500 93,750
       
Abbotsford CMA 3,853 3,700 3,650
Kelowna CMA 4,158 5,500 5,200
Vancouver CMA 36,479 38,300 37,200
Victoria CMA 7,500 8,300 7,600
 
Average MLS® Price ($) 2006 Actual 2007 Forecast 2008 Forecast
British Columbia 390,963 438,200 464,500
       
Abbotsford CMA 303,959 361,700 398,000
Kelowna CMA 349,805 415,000 448,000
Vancouver CMA 509,876 571,000 623,000
Victoria CMA 427,154 465,000 485,000
 
SOURCE: CMHC Housing Market Outlook, British Columbia Region Highlights, Fourth Quarter 2007.

1 Census Metropolitan Area (CMA).

2 The term MLS® stands for Multiple Listing Service and is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).
 
For more information about the Canadian Housing Market, visit http://cmhc.ca/en/co/index.cfm

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